The story of Britain’s departure from the European Union (EU) is a saga filled with political manoeuvres and controversial campaigns. The Conservative government, marked by allegations of falsehoods during the Leave campaign and claims of its manipulation by Cambridge Analytica, was pivotal in the execution of Brexit. The same government has now signed a major trade agreement, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

Brexit’s Economic Impact

According to a study by the Centre for European Reform, the UK’s economy is estimated to be 5.5 per cent poorer now than it would have been if it had remained in the EU. This figure is constructed by comparing the UK’s current performance with a hypothetical scenario in which it did not part ways with the EU. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK’s independent forecasting body, has also indicated that Brexit would likely negatively impact the country’s economic status.

CPTPP: The Conservative Government’s Counter-move

The Conservative government, represented by Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, counters these stark figures by suggesting the recently signed CPTPP could bring forth economic gains. The deal encompasses 11 nations across the Asia-Pacific, a region predicted to contribute at least 50% of the world’s growth until 2035.

Membership of the CPTPP aims to loosen trade restrictions and reduce tariffs on goods such as dairy, meat products, cars, and certain spirits. The collective economic output of these countries equates to about 13% of the world’s income, presenting a sizable market for the UK.

Despite the potential benefits, government estimates indicate that CPTPP membership would only add a marginal 0.08% to the UK’s economy over a decade. However, Badenoch argued that these estimates fail to account for future growth and how the UK might capitalize on the agreement. She contended that if the deal is not fully utilized, these modest predictions could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Mixed Reactions

The response to the CPTPP agreement has been mixed. The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) welcomed the deal, highlighting its potential for UK businesses to expand their trade reach. They particularly emphasized the benefits for small- and medium-sized businesses regarding reduced costs for importing components.

Conversely, the TUC trade union body expressed concern, arguing the pact was “bad for workers at home and abroad”. They critiqued the Conservative government for allegedly neglecting human and workers’ rights abuses in pursuing trade deals. Additionally, the John Lewis Partnership expressed concern about how the UK intends to maintain environmental and animal welfare standards, especially concerning the potential impact on British farmers.

In Conclusion

The economic implications of Brexit remain contested, with the Conservative government making significant moves, such as the CPTPP deal, to counterbalance predicted losses. Despite offering new markets and growth potential, the CPTPP’s impact is expected to be modest at best. The uncertainty surrounding environmental standards, workers’ rights, and implications on domestic sectors like farming persist. As Britain seeks to forge new economic relationships, and although the final financial and social consequences of Brexit remain to be seen, the actual figures to date are hard to ignore.